U.A.E. 2022

2022 Reflections on my trip to the U.A.E.  -- In April of 2022, I went with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government on a class in the U.A.E. that focused on understanding the rise of the country. We were greeted by the country' s Ministers, government leaders, journalists, academics and civic leaders. Below are my overall reflections. The commentary below is my personal opinion and my interpretation of events and does not reflect any official statements from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government nor the United Arab Emirates.

I loved this trip. Truly, it revitalized my hope in the Middle East and I have been trying to go back the U.A.E. since the moment I left because of this very trip. I outlined below the major themes and discussions I was most interested in throughout the experience. 

One recurring theme was faith in the leadership of the U.A.E. as able-bodied and visionary leaders. Whenever our group pointed out how oil was the backbone of the U.A.E.’s growth, I felt like the interviewees pushed back by pointing out how oil was not enough for other Middle Eastern nations and that it takes leadership that knew how to truly manage oil wealth. In other words, many countries have oil, but the U.A.E. is a success story because of effective leadership that knew what to do with this oil. 

Political participation is present in my eyes–just in a different way than we are used to in the western world. At one dinner, I spoke with a government official who reviewed legislation in the UAE and would either approve or deny it. He said his colleagues and himself rarely denied legislation and even when they do, they give advice to those submitting on how to approve and it eventually passes anyway. I think it is fair to say that this is still a form of political participation because it allows his colleagues to review legislation and then consult with anyone submitting on ways to revise after a denial. Westerners are quicker to judge the Middle East as less democratic, often this is an example of how democracy exists in its own way in the region. 

I asked this same individual how he knows how the public feels about legislation if there are no official votes and he said they sometimes conduct focus groups to gauge public opinion and majlis made available in different neighbors as a forum for citizens to voice their thoughts to officials and civic leaders. This also seemed like a form of political participation to me. Not to mention, the foreign advisors and the use of external consulting companies like McKinsey in governmental decision-making showcase the U.A.E.'s willingness to incorporate diverse voices into decision-making. So, there are mechanisms to make your voice heard in the U.A.E. 

There was a natural pecking order in the major Emirates and this was accepted among leaders, which explains the relative harmony and the channeling of tensions in competition rather than war. Abu Dhabi was the top for their oil wealth, which bailed out other Emirates like Dubai when their vanity projects bankrupted them. Dubai was second for its fast-paced growth and economic power. Then, I think Sharjah is third and Ras Al-Khaimah fourth. When I asked one top-level government official in the UAE about competition with other Emirates, he smiled and sang the cooperation tune–confirming that Abu Dhabi’s and Dubai’s economic and political superiority is a tense topic. 

     One thing I wondered though: where was the military power? If Abu Dhabi and Dubai control the executive government, do they then have military control too? I wondered if this played a role in the obedience of other Emirates. It also felt like a self-enforcing cycle: if you are the federal leader, don’t you have access to executive decision-making and resources to further enrich your Emirate and keep it in power? I wondered about resource allocation and distribution when the ruler of an Emirate also ruled the federal government–how did they prevent the emergence of another Lebanon where executive leaders tried to drain resources for only their Emirate? Or is that a problem? This requires research on my end. 

A talking point presented on this trip was female empowerment, primarily through the political representation of Emirati women and economic opportunities granted to female expats. The women that truly get political representation such as government jobs were part of the coveted Emirati citizenry class (10% of the UAE!) and all adherents of Islam. So, yes, women get representation in a diverse country, but the women are all Muslim and elites. Despite this, I was still impressed honestly. I thought I would never go back to the Middle East because I would never have equal opportunities as a man would, but the U.A.E. making a strong effort at painting themselves as advocates of advancing women. Having Arab men tell me how important women are to the economy, innovation, and such was new–I was not expecting that. 

In addition, motherhood is still an expectation of women and seems to still be important to even professional working women. Whether this is negative or positive is not something for me to comment on, but it is certainly a societal expectation to take into account. For example, there seemed to be a consensus around a woman’s role as a mother in the country. Hearing accounts of work-life balance for women also made me wonder about women’s expected roles in “maintaining” the house, keeping the honor of the family, and ensuring the educational and economic success of the children. Again, I don’t think I have the right to comment on whether this is positive or negative, but it was a pressure I did notice and wanted to point out despite the work-centric rhetoric around women. 

Moreover, it was difficult to ignore that the the U.A.E. is disappointed in the United States and looking to other allies like China, which cannot be underscored enough. It was continuously reiterated to our group that it was disappointing to see the U.S.’s failure to promptly follow up with the U.A.E. following the Houthi attack; the U.S. failure to designate Houthis as terrorists due to humanitarian causes even though the two are compatible policies; poor negotiation of the JPSOCA without including missiles and proxy militia activities and then consequent failures to negotiate a new, all-encompassing agreement; and U.S. policy of disengagement with the Middle East as it compromises the status of the U.S. as a security provider to the Middle East. 

On the last point, the U.A.E. is essentially saying that they are diversifying their partnership base because they no longer feel that the U.S. is a reliable ally and so, worry about an upcoming power vacuum. The point about the U.A.E. being a small state that needed allies and security kept re-emerging, which pointed out to me just how important geographic size can be to a country’s global power and position. The growing influence of China in the Middle East was one of the most fascinating portions of the trip for me. I saw China everywhere: Huawei sponsored Expo 2020, Huawei’s telecommunications product stores were all over the country, and the technological and entrepreneurial connections in the U.A.E. to China are only expanding. 

Emiratis conceded that American military technology is top grade and access to F-35s and other important weaponry and machinery is a priority for the U.A.E., but we frequently heard about the frustration of the strings attached to this access. For example, when the U.S. believed China was building military installations in U.A.E. ports (a characterization that U.A.E. officials deny), they held a multi-billion dollar arms deal as bait for the U.A.E. stopping the installations. Also, the U.A.E. can get Chinese surveillance technology–something the U.S. would never give them. 

So, the presence of China in the Middle East will only intensify in the coming years, and given the recent snub the U.A.E. gave the U.S. and its allies over oil inflation, I wonder whether the U.S. will continue to hold as much influence in the coming years as China’s economic, cultural and maybe even military power grows in the Middle East. With that being said, many from this trip have speculated that they do not know China’s “true intentions” in the region. At first, I referenced China's 2016 Arab policy paper where China lays out its intentions very clearly. But then, I realized that if there is this much uncertainty about China's behavior, something must not be aligned between China’s words and actions. Many academics speculate that China has no desire to fill the U.S.’s shoes in the Middle East as evidenced by their policy while others claim it is aiming to displace the U.S., but if China’s behavior is described by senior officials as ambiguous, how can we truly know what China is doing in the Middle East? 

Moving on, Israel and Palestine was a really important topic in our discussions because of the significance of the Abraham Accords and the cultural and economic cooperation it facilitated between the U.A.E. and Israel. People generally supported the Abraham Accords and evidence of dissent was dismissed, even though our group was aware of some NYU Abu Dhabi student protests. How students may feel aside, it seemed well-embraced by Emirati officials, and Palestinians were painted as undivided and uncoordinated compared to the Israelis, whose technological innovation (Pegasus, etc) and tourism had much more to offer the U.A.E. The normalization of relations with Israel showcased the state’s emphasis on a foreign policy heavily influenced by economic opportunities. There also seemed to be insecurity over Saudi’s ambitions to beat the U.A.E.’s economic development. Saudi is not as developed as the U.A.E., but it seems like they have serious potential. I wish we heard more about this, but it was one of those taboo subjects that officials are too scared to talk about.

The financial freedoms afforded in the U.A.E are impressive as they allow for an atmosphere of entrepreneurship and business development. With “Dubai essentially a free trade zone city,” I was amazed to see the conglomerate of companies that Dubai became with big hitters like Facebook or McKinsey. I saw why companies moved to Dubai–it was not just about the financial freedoms, but also about the synergy of being around other companies. The company tax that was recently introduced, however, may impact this environment. We were there at a time when the tax had no real impacts yet, so I would be interested in going back after several years to assess its impacts and whether it hindered economic growth.

The emergence of technologically-oriented and innovative companies, in particular, was a point of focus in the interviews because they were seen as a path forward to advance, "efficientize," and empower society. I think it is also because technology is seen as the future of commerce and is here to stay, this technology could be profitable enough to truly diversify away from oil and at the same time, improve the standard of living for citizens. I still do wonder, however, what safeguards the U.A.E has against risky financial investments. Technological companies could always fail, so I heed the U.A.E to build economic safety nets in the case of bad risks. 

I wonder similarly about inflation–how is the U.A.E preventing their economy from serious inflation with all of this investment? More politically, I was curious if there were any working groups or initiatives to understand the broad-reaching impacts of a more digitized society. What about the health of citizens–we never heard about the U.A.E’s rising obesity rates as it globalizes, won’t technology only contribute? I personally felt there was little else being done to study health impacts. I was also worries about the political and cultural impacts of a technological society. How do we expect cryptocurrency, NFTs, and other forms of fintech to impact the citizenry’s relationship with its government? 

On the last day of interviews, I learned that the U.A.E. was invited to be an observer of the G-20. Our group went to the U.A.E. at the perfect moment. It is on the rise and we got to witness its sophistication as it realizes its Emirati exceptionalism and repositions itself on the global stage.